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Marine regime shifts around the globe: the societal challenges


Description of the workshop

Regime shifts are phenomena during which the entire ecosystem may shift from one stable state to another. In the oceanic realm, regime shifts have been reported in all basins, and are expected to increase in occurrence, because of climate change, and of human impacts in the oceans, which lead to a decline in ecosystem resilience. They have been reported also in limnology, estuarine, and terrestrial ecology. The interest of the scientific community on the field of regime shifts is shown by the large and growing number of articles on this topic in the recent years.

These phenomena do not just interest scientists, but managers as well, since such shifts may carry unforeseen changes in ecosystem services (e.g., collapses of fisheries, habitat reduction), which can have substantial impacts on human economies and societies. Because of their abruptness and unpredictability, regime shifts are difficult to anticipate and costly to reverse, or mitigate, if at all possible.

The aim of this IMBER session is to focus on the social-ecological impacts of regime shifts, linking the effects of global change and anthropogenic impacts on marine systems with societal impacts and possible futures. The overall objective is to build on this scientific understanding in order to explore the best strategies to mitigate or adapt to regime shifts, and to evaluate the range of possible marine policy actions.

To achieve this objective, this session will bring together experts from both natural and social/economics sciences in order to discuss how to predict and mitigate the effects of ecological marine regime shifts on human societies; to propose possible future scenarios; to evaluate policy and management options; and to identify the key challenges in this area.


Session Programme

Oral Presentations

Monday 23 June, 09:00-10:00

Chair: Martin Edwards

Time  ID Presenter Title
09.00-09:10   Conversi, Alessandra Introduction to workshop
09:10-09:40 W5.1.O1 Certain, Gregoire Are "Early Warning Signals" useful for the management of large marine ecosystems?
09:40-10:10 W5.1.O2 Buttay, Lucie Shift in seasonal amplitude and synchronicity of zooplankton in the northwest Iberian shelf driven by meteo-hydrographic forcing
10:10-10-30   All Discussion

Monday 23 June, 11:00-12:30

Chair: Christian Möllmann

Time  ID Presenter Title
11.00-11.30 W5.2.O1 Van Putten, Ingrid Empirical evidence for different cognitive effects in explaining the attribution of marine range shifts to climate change
11.30-12:00 W5.2.O2 Conversi, Alessandra Ecological marine regime shifts around the world: analogies, impacts, and challenges
12:00-12:30   All Discussion

Monday 23 June, 14:30-16:00

Chair: Alessandra Conversi

Time  ID Presenter Title
14.30-15.00 W5.3.O1 Blenckner, Thorsten Regime shifts and multiple drivers in the Black Sea and Baltic- lessons from their recent history
15.00-15:30 W5.3.O2 Möllmann, Christian Socio-economic implications of the Baltic Sea regime shift and feedbacks to the ecosystem
15:30-16:00 W5.3.O3 Montero-Serra, Ignasi Warming shelf seas drive the tropicalization of European pelagic fish communities

Monday 23 June, 16:30-18:00

Time  ID Presenter Title
16:30-18:00   Discussion Panel Discussion

Poster Presentations

Monday 23 June, 13:00-14:00, Workshop Poster Session

ID Presenter Title
W5.P1 Austin, Peter Performance of marine regime shift detection methods. 
W5.P2 Hall, Julie Comparison of Continuous Plankton Recorder zooplankton data between Ross Sea, and East Antarctic regions of the Southern Ocean
W5.P3 Saitoh, Sei-Ichi Potential habitat patterns of neon flying squid in central North Pacific in response to high-frequency climate oscillations