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Approaches to predicting fish from physics: strengths, weaknesses and ways forward

Conveners

Description of the workshop

Tremendous progress has been made in simulating fish biomass from the physics of marine environments. Three-dimensional ocean circulation models predict the distribution of light, temperature and nutrients, driving primary production, which is then transferred to upper trophic levels to provide a spatially- and temporally-resolved prediction of fish biomass. The focus of this workshop will be on the latter part of the problem: the transfer of primary production to upper trophic levels.

At present, the transfer of biomass to upper trophic levels is being tackled through a number of approaches of varying complexity, from simple size-spectrum models to complex species-resolved ecosystem models. Most of these have been developed only in the last few years, by groups working in parallel, with little inter-comparison. The success of all approaches is limited to the strength with which available data can be used to constrain them. We invite contributions on the topic of predicting the abundance and distribution of fish, with the explicit understanding that the goal of this session is to compare related works, both with each other and with data, and to identify key weaknesses and strengths of the various tools employed. A significant part of this session will be devoted to discussing ways in which to move forward in light of the work presented. Data assessments, numerical simulations and mathematical theory are all welcome.

 

Session Programme

Oral Presentations

Monday 23 June, 09:00-10:30

Time  ID Presenter Title
09:00-09:45     W3+W7+W8 Joint introduction (overview of the three workshops, and a few words from the organizers of the Fish Model Intercomparison Project, FishMIP)
09:45-10:30     Speed talks (max 2.5 min. each). No questions
  W7.1.O1 Christensen, Villy The global ocean is an ecosystem: Simulating marine life and fisheries
  W7.1.O2 Galbraith, Eric The Bioeconomic Open Access Trophic Size-spectrum model (BOATS): An Earth-System approach to fisheries and fisheries economics
  W7.1.O3 Eddy, Tyler Approaches to predicting fish from physics: strengths, weaknesses and ways forward
  W7.1.O4 Kearney, Kelly How does uncertainty in model structure and parameterization affect the propagation of primary production through a marine food web?
  W7.1.O5 Lehodey, Patrick Coupling 3-D models of ocean physics and biogeochemistry to fish population dynamics to monitor marine living resources under the influence of fishing and climate
  W7.1.O6 Payne, Mark In search of low-hanging fruit: are there any shortcuts to near-term prediction in North Atlantic marine ecosystems?
  W7.1.O7 Roy, Tilla A global assessment of size-structured pelagic biomass in an end-to-end biogeochemical ocean circulation model.
  W7.1.O8 Steenbeek, Jeroen Advances in spatial-temporal food web modelling with Ecospace
  W7.1.O9 Tittensor, Derek Inter-comparison of global fisheries and ecosystem models
  W7.1.10 Lindstrøm, Ulf Non-deterministic modelling of biomass transfer in food-webs
  W7.1.11 Lotze, Heike Modeling the impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems (FISH-MIP): A new model intercomparison project

Monday 23 June, 11:00-12:00

Time  ID Presenter Title
11:00-11:30 W7.2.O1 Tittensor, Derek What is the best way to evaluate model results and judge model skill?
11:30-12:00 W7.2.O2 Lehodey, Patrick Is movement important? If so, how do we model it?
12:00-12:30 W7.2.O3 Planque, Benjamin Is Type II feeding enough? How do we choose the right level of food-web complexity?

Monday 23 June, 14:00-16:00

Time  ID Presenter Title
14:30-15:15 W7.3.O1 Christensen, Villy How can we generate future fish harvest scenarios?
15:15-16:00 W7.3.O2 Kearney, Kelly What are the most critical uncertainties we need to address in the models, how does error propagate?

Monday 23 June, 16:00-18:00

Time  ID Presenter Title
16:00-17:00   All Preparation of the W7 synthesis. Discussion on the preparation of a potential synthesis paper
17:00-18:00     W3+W7+W8 plenary synthesis (each workshop gives a ~20 minute summary, 30 minutes for open discussion)

Monday 23 June, 17:00-18:30

Time  ID Presenter Title
17:00-18:30     W3+W7+W8 plenary synthesis (each workshop gives a ~20 minute summary, 30 minutes for open discussion)