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Workshop 3

Workshop summary Workshop conveners Keynote speakers Workshop programme New!

Integrated modelling to support assessment and management of marine social-ecological systems in the face of global change


Policy-and decision-makers need assessments of status and trends in marine habitats, species and ecosystems to ensure human activities in the marine environment remain sustainable, particularly in the face of global change in the Earth and social systems. This requirement enables (i) satisfactory planning and mitigation of impacts on marine ecosystems, (ii) adjustment of activities to avoid or limit actual or imminent impacts, such as in feedback management of fisheries, and (iii) satisfactory adaptation of human activities and industries to future change before problems arise for ecosystem services. Central to these assessments are statistical and dynamic models of habitats, species, ecosystems, human activities and social systems. A difficulty with most models is that they rarely capture all the spatial, temporal, biological and/or social scales needed for all assessment purposes. In particular, models at a specific scale (population, food web, regional, global) are rarely linked to models at other scales, nor is their performance necessarily consistent (bounded satisfactorily) with the behaviour of models at other scales.


This workshop will consider approaches to integrate modelling efforts to address societal questions on marine social-ecological system change and management. Social and natural scientists will work together to develop an inventory of models and modelling approaches in advance of the workshop using the SOKI wiki (www.soki.aq). This will draw on the experience of IndiSeas (Indicators for the Seas), FISH-MIP (Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries), and MEECE (Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment).


The main objectives of the workshop are therefore, to discuss:

  1. Integrated modelling methods
  2. Standards for coupling models and data storage
  3. Future directions for integrated modelling of marine social-ecological systems, and ecosystem services.
  4. How to support networking between modellers, and link modelling efforts to enable researchers to draw on the experience of others to build models that suit their needs.
  5. Outputs of the workshop, including methods and protocols, will be documented on SOKI, peer reviewed and made available in the public domain according to the peer-review procedures of SOKI (as per scientific journals with accepted pages being published with DOIs)
  6. From the discussions, the workshop aims to provide a tool-box of models, input and output data and applications
  7. A special issue of Ecological Modelling will also be developed.


This workshop will bring together natural and social scientists from the modelling community, as well as experts in policy and the human dimensions related to the marine environment.


Workshop conveners

Eugene Murphy (British Antarctic Survey, UK)

Barbara Paterson (Saint Mary's University, Canada)

Andrew Constable (Australian Antarctic Division, Australia)

Jessica Melbourne-Thomas (Australian Antarctic Division, Australia)

Stuart Corney (Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia)


Keynote speakers

1. Barbara Paterson (St Mary's University, Canada) - Social science perspective 

2. Icarus Allen (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK) - Natural science perspective


Workshop programme

Please note that this programme might be updated prior to the IMBIZO so please check it regularly

Workshop 3: Integrated modelling to support assessment and management of marine social-ecological systems in the face of global change
Tuesday, 27 October
Time Presenters Title
08:30-09:30 Welcome by IMBIZO co-conveners, and dedication of IMBIZO IV to K.K. Liu
09:30-10:05 Silvia Salas Let's cooperate: the first step in marine ecosystem-based governance
10:05-10:40 William Chueng Impacts of global change on coastal upwelling ecosystems and fisheries
10:40-11:00 Morning Tea
11:00-11:35 Icarus Allen Integrated modelling of ecosystem response to climate change and anthropogenic pressures
11:35-12:10 Barbara Paterson Integrated modelling to support assessment and management of marine social-ecological systems in the face of global change – a social science perspective
12:10-12:45 Scott Ling An ounce of prevention can be worth a ton of cure for managing marine regime shifts
12:45-14:30 Lunch
  Richard Hofmeister Modular coupling of shelves and coasts
Charlotte Weber Modelling social science aspects of fisheries. A systematic review
Mary Mackay A study of small-scale fisher people's perceptions of policies, resources and the fishing industry in Sri Lanka using Q-methodology in order to identify the root causes of current industry conflicts
Hayley Bannister Exposing uncertainties in marine ecosystem modelling
15:45-16:15 Afternoon tea
  Ginevra Rosati A combined observational modelling approach to assess the mercury budget in the Marano-Grado lagoon
Joyita Mukherjee Study of ecosystem health through food web model in anthropogenically affected Hooghly estuarine region, India
Arnault Le Bris Using integrating modelling to predict the effects of climate variability and change on the American lobster fishery
Xavier Desmit Reducing marine eutrophication may require a paradigmatic change
17:30-20:00 Posters and icebreaker
Wednesday, 28 October
Time Presenters Title
  Eileen Hofmann Projected changes and Southern Ocean foodwebs
Eric Galbraith The fish model intercomparison project (FishMIP)
Laurent Bopp On the use of climate models to project the future of evolution of marine ecosystems and ecosystem services
Julia Blanchard Size-spectrum models: how can they be used to support integrated analysis of marine socio-ecological systems?
10:30-11:00 Morning Tea
  Virginia Palastanga  Linking shelf break dynamics and primary productivity on the Patagonian Shelf: a study with idealised numerical experiments. (Poster)
Paul Suprenand Preparing for the inevitable: social and ecological impacts of oil spills in the Beaufort Sea, Arctic marine ecosystem. (Poster)
Rapporteurs Report back on the five key topics and discussion
12:30-14:00 Lunch
14:00-15:30 Drafting of synthesis paper
15:30-16:00 Afternoon tea
16:00-17:30 Plenary interaction session (Debate)
17:30-20:00 Poster Session (Drinks and snacks)
Thursday, 29 October
Time Presenters Title
08:30-09.00 Plenary report back session  
  Eugene Murphy Developing integrated models of Southern Ocean ecosystems and human interactions
Stuart Corney Integrated modelling for ecosystems in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean
Michael Drexler Reimagining fisheries management: an agent based approach
Kieran Hyder Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
10:30-11:00 Morning Tea
  Francisco Bravo Spatially explicit simulation of sediment biogeochemical cycles in coastal environments, from habitat to bay scale
Xun Zhang Operational potential fishing zone prediction for Japanese common squid in the coastal waters of southwestern Hokkaido, Japan
Giulia Mussap Modelling the benthic-pelagic coupling in a coastal marine ecosystem
Terrie Klinger Social-ecological dynamics in the Gulf of Alaska - after the oil spill and into the future
12:30-14:00 Lunch
14:00-15:30 Rapporteurs Report back on the five key topics and discussion
15:30-16:00 Afternoon tea
16:00-17:30 Plenary interaction session (Discussion)
19:30 IMBIZO Dinner
Friday, 30 October
Time Presenters  
08:30-09:00 Plenary report back session  
09:00-10:30 Presentation of synthesis draft and further discussion
10:30-11:00 Morning Tea
11:00-13:00 Plenary wrap up